Back-to-School Apparel Spending Shifts Earlier as 2026 Tariffs Loom

Key facts

The National Retail Federation's most recent annual back-to-school survey, conducted with Prosper Insights and Analytics in early July 2025 and covering 7,581 U.S. households, found that families are starting school shopping earlier than at any point since NRF began tracking the trend in 2018. With a Section 122 import surcharge set to expire in late July 2026 and new U.S. Trade Representative hearings scheduled for April and May 2026, the pressure on family apparel budgets is not letting up heading into the fall 2026 school year.

• 67% of K-12 families had already started back-to-school purchases by early July 2025, up from 55% the year before and the highest share on record since 2018.
• 51% of families said they were shopping earlier specifically because they expected tariffs to push prices higher later in the season.
• K-12 households budgeted an average of $249.36 on clothing and accessories, totaling $11.4 billion across the country, with shoes adding another $169.13 per family on average.

What it means for parents shopping in spring 2026

The same trade-policy uncertainty that drove record-early shopping in 2025 is present again this spring, in a changed form. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, striking down the IEEPA-based duties that had been layered onto imports in 2025. Four days later, on February 24, 2026, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% temporary import surcharge on products from all countries, effective for 150 days through July 24, 2026. That expiration date falls squarely inside the back-to-school shopping window, and the existing Section 301 duties on Chinese-made goods remain in force regardless. The U.S. Trade Representative also launched two new Section 301 investigations in March 2026, with public hearings scheduled in April and May 2026 that could result in further duties by late summer.

For families shopping for back-to-school clothing this spring, the practical read is straightforward: basics that kids will need regardless, such as socks, undershirts, and everyday crew tops, are good candidates for buying now, before the Section 122 window expires or any new duties take effect. The NRF data showed that discount stores rose five percentage points in popularity between 2024 and 2025, and online remained the top channel at 55% of respondents. Families stretching budgets are looking for durable, washable staples at predictable price points.

Background and context

Back-to-school spending is the second-largest retail season of the year, behind the winter holidays. NRF has tracked it annually since 2003. Total K-12 back-to-school spending reached $39.4 billion in the 2025 cycle, up from $38.8 billion the prior year, even as per-family spending dipped slightly to $858.07 from $874.68 in 2024. That pattern reflects more families shopping rather than any single family spending more. Clothing and accessories have consistently ranked in the top two or three K-12 spending categories every year of the survey, alongside electronics and shoes.

The tariff variable started reshaping the season in 2025 in a concrete way. The American Apparel and Footwear Association noted that 97% of all clothing sold in the U.S. is imported, making the category among the most directly exposed to import duty changes. Boys' apparel prices climbed 14% between May 2021 and May 2025, while girls' apparel and footwear each rose 4%, according to data cited by Deloitte in its own 2025 back-to-school analysis. The 2026 landscape is still being written: the 150-day Section 122 surcharge expires July 24, and the Section 301 hearings running through May 2026 will shape whether new duties on apparel from key sourcing countries including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, and India are added later in the year.

Takeaway

The NRF data from 2025 and the active trade policy calendar in spring 2026 together point in the same direction: families who stock up on school-year basics now, rather than waiting for July, are less exposed to any tariff-driven price movement that could arrive by late summer. That logic applies most clearly to high-turnover items that kids outgrow or wear out each year, which is exactly where combed-cotton crew socks sit on most back-to-school lists.